“The Closed Marketplace of Economic Ideas,” a Rebuttal

January 8, 2016

In a Project Syndicate column, Federico Fubini makes the argument that the intellectual leaders in economics from ten years ago are still the leaders of today, and this despite the fact that we have had a financial crisis that was not predicted by the profession. I do not agree with this column on several fronts. As the argument was made using RePEc data, I feel obligated to set the record straight.

One may discuss whether the economics profession has really not seen the crisis coming. But even if this crisis was unforeseen, it is wrong to argue on principle that the best economists from ten years ago should not be considered to be the best today. Indeed, it is not the case that the whole profession is focussed on predicting financial or economic crises. Economics has much more to offer, just see the list of recent Nobel Prize winners or the large variety of fields covered by NEP, RePEc’s research alert service. Most of those fields have nothing to do with crises. For example, the leaders in auction theory from ten years ago are likely to be leaders now, the same applies to development economics, empirical labor economics, or environmental economics. Ten years is short in the evolution of scientists.

But beyond this mischaracterization of what the economics profession does, there is the issue with the use of the data to prove the point. Fubini uses the ranking of economists provided by IDEAS/RePEc, taking the December 2006 and the September 2015 rankings. But before looking at them, one has to understand what they measure. They are an aggregation of 23 (2006) or 35 (2015) criteria, almost all of which pertain to the lifetime output of the economists. Those that are not are four looking at readership statistics for the last months, and in the recent rankings six criteria discounting citations by their age. Basically, the accumulated research and citations that were considered in 2006 are also considered in 2015. There is obviously going to be high persistence among the best economists. And keep in mind that critiquing someone will earn him a citation.

What you want to do is using two datasets that do not overlap, one that considers publications until 2006, and one since that year. One can get very close by using another ranking, the one that considers only the publications from the last 10 years. In the following I will use the one that was published today and pertains to December 2015. We have thus only one year of overlap in the publication dates. And the results look quite different (I did this in a couple of hours, I cannot vouch the numbers are totally correct).

Incumbency rate by cohort
Cohort Fubini Better
Top 10 90% 70%
Top 20 95% 75%
Top 50 98% 72%
Top 100 94% 61%
Top 200 65% 42%

The rest of the arguments in the Fubini column also change quite a bit once you look at better data.

You must not be an economist. In fact, Lucas and Fama both moved up in the RePEc rankings during the period I examined, from 30 to nine and from 23 to 17, respectively. And the persistence at the top is striking across the board. Among the top ten economists in September 2015, six were already there in December 2006, and another two were ranked 11 and 13.

Lucas (Robert E. Jr.) and Fama actually dropped, Lucas from 30 to 33, Fama from 23 to … not being ranked in the top 10%. And in the top ten for December 2015, only three where there in 2006, another two ranked 11 and 13 in 2006 (the same).

Mobility in the RePEc rankings remains subdued even after widening the sample. For example, of the top 100 economists in September 2015, only 14 were absent from the much wider top 5% in 2006, and only two others had advanced more than 200 spots over the previous decade. Among those recently ranked from 101 to 200, just 24 were not in the top 5% in 2006, and only ten others had moved up by more than 200 places. The rate of renewal among the 200 most influential economists was as low as 25% – and just 16% among the top 100 – during a decade in which the explanatory power of prevailing economic theory had been found severely wanting.

Again with better data, this looks different. From the 2015 top 100, 41 were absent from the top 5% in 2006. Nine advanced more than 200 spots. For 101 to 200, 45 were not in the top 5%, and seven moved up more than 200 spots. Using Fubini’s definitions, the renewal rate is thus 51% in the top 200 and 50% in the top 100. Hardly a stagnation.

In the rankings of economists, by contrast, criteria such as gender or geographic origin confirm the overall inertia. Only four women made the RePEc top 200 in September 2015, compared to three in December 2006, and two were included on both lists. Likewise, emerging countries – which represent more than 90% of the world’s population, three-quarters of global GDP growth over the last decade, and nearly half of total income in current dollar terms – supplied just 11 of the top 200 economists in September 2015, up from ten in December 2006. And ten of those 11 – three Iranians, four Indians, two Turks, and one Chinese – have lived and worked in the US or the United Kingdom since their student days.

With better data, this changes as well. There are now seven women. Still too few, though. There are 18 economists from emerging countries: two Turks, one Egyptian, seven Indians, two Iranians, two Pakistani, one from Cameroun, two Chinese, one Bangladeshi. Eight of them live in an emerging economy.

I’ll let the reader judge whether there is still a “closed market place for ideas in economics.” But the picture certainly looks different from what Fubini seems to imply.


RePEc in December 2015, and a look back at 2015

January 7, 2016

The year ended on a calm note, as usual. Still we added a few participating institutions: Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, Associazione Italiana per la Storia dell’Economia Politica, University of Essex (III), International University College of Turin, International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Academy of Municipal Administration. For the RePEc services that participate in the statistics, we counted 416,271 file downloads and 2,093,294 abstract views in December 2015. Finally, NEP has a new report, NEP-PAY (Payment Systems and Financial Technologies). Over the past month, we reached the following milestones:

1800000 listed items available online
1200000 listed articles
700000 listed working papers
600000 listed working papers available online
7000 ranked institutions

Now looking back at 2015: close to 190,000 items were added, in part through the addition of 77 new participating archives. RePEc is now covering, among others, 240 more working paper series and 260 more journals. Several services are running on new hardware, in particular EconPapers and the RePEc Author Service. We have introduced an API. CitEc now offers citation alerts by economists. The RePEc Biblio accepts user suggestions. We counted 5,765,579 downloads and 23,781,746 abstract views over the past year.


RePEc Author Service getting upgraded

December 30, 2015

The RePEc Author Service is currently unavailable due to scheduled downtime. We are moving it to new hardware. The process should not take more than a few hours. Updates will be provided here.

Update: The service is back online. If you notice something amiss, please notify the administrator at this email address.


RePEc in November 2015

December 3, 2015

Last month, we reached a major milestone: The RePEc Genealogy, the academic family tree of economists, has over 10,000 people indexed. This has been achieved with the help of almost 2,500 contributors who logged into the wiki feature of the site. We also welcomed the following institutions with new archives: Heriot-Watt University (II), NISEA, EPFL (II), European Stability Mechanism, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Finally, we counted 528,705 file downloads and 1,969,597 abstract views over the month.

Other milestones we reached:
70,000,000 cumulative abstract views on EconPapers
750,000 indexed items have been cited
750,000 articles with abstracts
300,000 articles with references
25,000 indexed books
10,000 economists on RePEc Genealogy


Mentioning economic research on the Internet? Deep-link to RePEc!

November 24, 2015

Whether you are building a web page, writing a blog post, posting on Facebook or tweeting, as an economist engaged in discussing research on the field, you have to cite relevant sources. To do so, one is tempted to link directly to where said research is to be found: on a personal homepage, on a publisher’s website, or to the pdf file in a working paper series. I want to argue that this is not the best tactic. It is better to link to the abstract page for these research pieces on IDEAS or EconPapers. Why?


  1. RePEc links are stable. Homepages disappear, publishers and institutions reorganize their websites, but RePEc services have committed to never change their URLs, as they are formed from persistent identifiers. And on the rare occasion that those change, IDEAS and EconPapers offer suggestions on the 404 page where to find the paper.
  2. RePEc shows other versions. The reader may not be able to read the particular version of the paper that is linked to a gated website. RePEc services often offer alternative versions of the article such as a freely available working paper.
  3. RePEc provides related literature. The abstract page offers links to referred and cited works, to author profiles, and other related material.
  4. RePEc rewards linked authors. Getting cited on the Internet, even if it is with a popular blogger or a major newspaper, does not offer any quantifiable rewards to the authors. With a RePEc link, though, hits and downloads will counts towards authors rankings. Authors will be grateful for that.

NB: Linking to the URLs disseminated by NEP is fine, too, although only the last point is valid in that case.
PS: For blogs, the posts linking to RePEc abstract pages will be featured on EconAcademics.


RePEc in October 2015

November 4, 2015

We are welcoming fresh blood in the RePEc team, with Joachim Winter taking over the reigns of MPRA from Ekkehart Schlicht.

We have welcomed the following newly participating archives: Effectus University College, Liechtenstein-Institut, Council on Economic Priorities, Academic Research Publishing Group, South African Reserve Bank. We have also counted 519,872 file downloads and 2,303,472 abstract views. Which brings us to several milestones we have surpassed in the last month:

20’000’000 captured references
1’000’000 items indexed in RePEc
500 RePEc-wide h-index (over 500 items with over 500 citations each)
300 listed book series


Joachim Winter takes Responsibility for MPRA

October 23, 2015

The Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) has been started nine years ago by me, Ekkehart Schlicht, to support the function of the Econ Working Paper Archive that went out of operation at the time. I have continued to supervise the archive after my retirement but decided to hand the duty over to someone else. It is a great fortune that one of my younger colleagues at our department, Joachim Winter, was prepared to help.

RePec-4b

The outgoing editor of MPRA, Ekkehart Schlicht, and the new editor, Joachim Winter

Joachim holds the Chair of Empirical Economic Research at the Department of Economics at the LMU University of Munich. In spite of his many other commitments, he decided to take care of MPRA. I am very happy about that.

MPRA provides the possibility for economists worldwide to make their research available through all services of the RePEc network even if they are not affiliated with an institution that runs an institutional RePEc archive. Because MPRA does not remove contributions from the archive, they remain publicly available for the future, even in those cases where the final version appears in a gated journal.

MPRA would not be possible with the continuous support by the University Library and its director Klaus-Rainer Brintzinger, and by Volker Schallehn who works at the library and is responsible for the electronic media there. I thank them very much for all they have done for MPRA in the past, and for their preparedness to support MPRA in the future.

RePec-3bEkkehart Schlicht, Klaus-Rainer Brintzinger, Joachim Winter, and Volker Schallehn

And, last but not least, I thank the editors of MPRA. Their voluntary and continuous support keeps the archive running incredibly smoothly. I have joined their ranks and will help with German and English submissions in the future.

All my best wishes to all of you!

Ekkehart


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